Quick Answer: Adobe forecasts curbside pickup at 16.5% of US online holiday orders, peaking at 35.0% on 23 December (Adobe Digital Insights, 2026). For a small shop, a pickup order is a sale you must hold stock for until the customer arrives. Keep the till, the website and the shelf on one count, and set the item aside the moment the order comes in.
Click and collect puts online orders into your shop, and the last days before Christmas are when it peaks. Adobe’s September 2026 forecast gives the US numbers, and a Jumpmind and Retail Systems Research survey shows what growing retailers plan to do about it. This guide turns both into a simple routine for a small shop. All figures are US or North American, so use them as a pointer, not a Singapore forecast.
In this article
- How much of holiday online ordering will be curbside pickup?
- When does pickup peak?
- Do most retail transactions still happen in stores?
- How many retailers are rolling out in-store fulfilment?
- What are those retailers doing at the till?
- How many retailers struggle to prove the return on store tech?
- How big is online holiday spend this year?
- How do small retailers usually find out an item is gone?
- How many small retailers still count by hand?
- How much cash is tied up in stock?
How much of holiday online ordering will be curbside pickup?
Adobe forecasts curbside pickup at 16.5% of US online orders this holiday season, down from 17.1% in 2025, according to Adobe Digital Insights (2026). Curbside pickup is Adobe’s term for collecting an online order at the shop.
The share is slightly lower, but it’s still roughly one online order in six. A shop that offers pickup can expect it to matter.
When does pickup peak?
Curbside pickup is expected to peak at 35.0% of orders on 23 December, down from 39% in 2025, according to Adobe. More than a third of online orders that day are forecast to be collected, not delivered.
The last-minute peak is the one to plan for. Customers who order on 23 December can’t wait for a courier, so they will walk in.
| Measure | 2026 forecast | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Curbside pickup share of online orders | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| Peak pickup share (23 December) | 35.0% | 39% |
Do most retail transactions still happen in stores?
Yes. Retail Systems Research says 80% of all retail transactions occur in stores, and EY forecasts offline retail at 77% of transactions in 2025 and 73% by 2028, as reported by Retail Dive (2025). These are North American figures.
The shop is still where most sales happen, which is why connecting it to online orders is worth the effort.
Retail Systems Research says 80% of all retail transactions occur in stores, and EY forecasts offline retail at 77% of transactions in 2025 and 73% by 2028 (Retail Dive, 2025).
How many retailers are rolling out in-store fulfilment?
63% of fast-growing retailers in a survey of 112 North American retailers are rolling out in-store fulfilment tools, according to Jumpmind and Retail Systems Research, as reported by Retail Dive. In-store fulfilment means filling online orders from shop stock.
Click and collect is the simplest form of it. The customer does the delivery part.
Adobe forecasts curbside pickup peaking at 35.0% of US online orders on 23 December 2026, down from 39% in 2025 (Adobe Digital Insights, 2026).
What are those retailers doing at the till?
Two-thirds of the same group plan to use mobile devices as point-of-sale terminals, according to the survey. A mobile till lets staff hand over a pickup order and take payment or check an ID wherever they are in the shop.
It’s a sample of 112 retailers and the survey was sponsored by a software vendor, so treat it as a pointer.
Related: Why a Singapore Shop’s POS Should Share Stock With Its Online Store
How many retailers struggle to prove the return on store tech?
Nearly half say they struggle to quantify the return on their in-store technology enhancements, according to the survey. Be clear what you want from a pickup process before you buy anything.
A simple target works: every pickup order should be set aside within an hour of coming in, and collected or released within two days.
How big is online holiday spend this year?
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in online holiday spend for November and December 2026, up 6.7% year over year. It is a US forecast, not Singapore data.
More online sales means more pickup orders in absolute terms, even if the share dips.
63% of fast-growing retailers in a survey of 112 North American retailers are rolling out in-store fulfilment tools, and two-thirds plan mobile POS (Jumpmind and Retail Systems Research, via Retail Dive, 2025).
How do small retailers usually find out an item is gone?
Nearly one in four small retailers only learn an item is out of stock when a customer tries to buy it, according to the Global Payments 2025 Retail Inventory Report of 200 small retailers. For a pickup order, that means telling a customer who’s already on the way.
The fix is to set the item aside as soon as the order arrives, so the shelf and the website agree.
Related: How to Stop Overselling Across Your Website, Shopee and Lazada
How many small retailers still count by hand?
Over half of small retailers still rely on manual counts, according to Global Payments (2025), so any process built on those counts is only as accurate as the last count. A pickup shelf is a small, countable thing, so count it every evening.
Keep a labelled shelf or box for pickup orders only. Anything on it is sold, so it must not appear as available.
How much cash is tied up in stock?
Inventory ties up 20% to 60% of business capital for most small retailers, according to Global Payments (2025). Items waiting uncollected on a pickup shelf are cash you can’t use.
Set a collection deadline, and release items that aren’t collected. A POS that shares stock with your online store makes that release show up everywhere at once. Asalta POS is a browser-based cloud POS that syncs sales into inventory, and it’s one option to compare. You can read more on the Asalta POS page.
Key Takeaways
- Expect a late peak: pickup is forecast at 35.0% of US online orders on 23 December.
- Set items aside at once: a pickup order is a sale, not stock.
- Keep a pickup shelf: label it and count it every evening.
- Measure it: nearly half of retailers struggle to prove the return on store tech.
- Release uncollected stock: inventory ties up 20% to 60% of capital.
Adobe forecasts curbside pickup at 16.5% of US online orders this holiday season, down from 17.1% in 2025.
Curbside pickup is expected to peak at 35.0% of orders on 23 December, down from 39% in 2025.
Yes. Retail Systems Research says 80% of all retail transactions occur in stores, and EY forecasts offline retail at 77% of transactions in 2025 and 73% by 2028.
63% of fast-growing retailers in a survey of 112 North American retailers are rolling out in-store fulfilment tools.
Two-thirds of the same group plan to use mobile devices as point-of-sale terminals.
Nearly half say they struggle to quantify the return on their in-store technology enhancements.
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in online holiday spend for November and December 2026, up 6.7% year over year.
Nearly one in four only learn an item is out of stock when a customer tries to buy it.
Over half of small retailers still rely on manual counts, so any process built on those counts is only as accurate as the last count.
Inventory ties up 20% to 60% of business capital for most small retailers.